Llyfr Du Cymru Fydd / The Black Book of the New Wales

Since its launch in 2016, the non-party-political and pro-independence movement Yes Cymru has grown dramatically, and in 2020 it was deemed the fastest growing political movement in Britain. Pre-pandemic its rallies attracted thousands in all parts of Wales, and post-Brexit and post-Covid its growth has been nothing less than staggering, reaching over 17,000 members by January 2021. The latest opinion polls also confirm strong support for independence among over 30% of the adult population, and many, although not yet convinced by the message, are deemed to be at least indy-curious.



Those who are supportive of the aims of Yes Cymru, and even those who are not, are all eager to know what an independent Wales might look like. Perhaps this is one lesson which can be learned from the failed 2014 independence referendum in Scotland, when it was thought that some key questions had not been addressed adequately. The Scottish government's White Paper on independence ahead of the referendum said Scotland would share the pound in a formal currency union with the rest of the UK after independence. However, this was ruled out by the UK government – and the currency issue was widely seen as a major reason for the Yes campaign losing the referendum.



This short bilingual booklet, according to Cian Ciarán, the Vice-Chair of Yes Cymru, provides ‘an exciting blueprint for building a better society’. The author, Llewelyn ap Gwilym, also a leading member of Yes Cymru, notes that the ideas presented are written in the spirit of utopian socialist thinking. Their central thesis is that if Wales becomes independent, either by choice, or by default, there is no need to replicate the way in which the economy has hitherto been run, and that a host of alternative and radical options, many of which have been tried and tested elsewhere, are desirable and workable. These include the devolution of decision-making to its least practicable level, more community-based enterprises and initiatives, employee shared ownership, and the taxation of wealth rather than income. Broad-ranging issues such as health, education, energy policies and transport infrastructure are also discussed, and it was surprising to discover that a comparable small independent country such as Estonia is moving rapidly towards providing a free public transport system for its residents, in line with another small independent country, Luxembourg, which has also implemented such a policy.



But as noted the currency question is probably central to winning the argument, and clarity on this question is crucial if the aims of Yes Cymru are to be realised. In line with recent policy announcements by the Scottish government, it now seems that monetary sovereignty is the way forward, and the author concludes that the ‘New Wales’ must also follow suit and have its own currency, citing American economist Professor Stephanie Kelton and her work The Deficit Myth, which argues that inflation is far more of a constraining factor on a nation’s economy than any perceived budget deficit. This is seen to counter the problem of Wales’s notional net fiscal deficit – the gap between total public spending and public sector revenues – used as a familiar and well-rehearsed argument by the opponents of Welsh independence.



This little blueprint certainly provides a useful framework for discussion and much food for thought, and it will inevitably encourage the development of more detailed policy statements and economic modelling as more of us bathe deeper in the waters of independence, whilst others may try dipping their toes to gauge the temperature on what appears to be an incoming tide. ~Richard E. Huws @ www.gwales.com